Ingredient Price Trends: Why You Should Watch Your Prices This Fall

watch your ingredient price trends

The summer is over and the calendar just turned to Fall. Your customers’ taste buds are craving something… new. Time to gear up for the Fall. But do you know the ingredient price trends for fall?

They don’t want fresh watermelon or light salads. They want heartier, heavier flavors.

And if you just start blindly ordering new ingredients without looking at the bigger picture… Your fall could be short on profits.

Luckily, Orderly analyzes tens of millions of supplier purchases each month. Real purchases made by real restaurants. And yes, that is millions.

Then, using our data-driven approach, we’re able to uncover big pricing revelations across the board. We find trends, calculate averages, point out anomalies… You name it, we know it.

And it all comes directly from the data.

When you’re an Orderly customer, you can get this information specifically catered to the ingredients you use every single day. We even offer a free trial.

In the meantime, we’re happy to provide you with a taste of what we do. We’ve outlined some Fall Ingredient Price Trends for you to keep an eye on as the temperature starts to take a dip.

Don’t let Fall show up without being prepared. Pat attention early and put more cash in your pocket for the winter.

food costs in a snap with Orderly

What We Found Out

Our data-driven approach allowed us to truly dig into all the purchases we receive from our customers.

And some of the things we found… Well, they might surprise you.

As we collect information, we put it into the Restaurant Food Index. This revolutionary feature allows our customers to compare their prices to local and national prices, as well as view pricing trends over time.

The graphs are simple to understand. The large grey area you see is the average national price of a given ingredient. And the line you see in the middle is the local average for the restaurant.

We try to break it down as locally as we can. Some states, like California, give us enough data to be state-specific. Generally, we go by the region.

Let’s take a look at these two butternut squash graphs.

Orderly - Squash Butternut Supplier Food Cost ExampleOrderly - Squash Butternut Supplier Food Cost Example 2

Regional Prices

The Northeast? It’s all over the place. But with Orderly, you can catch these price spikes early. That way, your supplier can’t keep charging you nearly $2/lb when the prices have actually dropped down by 75 cents.

If you’re on the West Coast, you’re in luck. Your prices should be consistently low. But make sure you’re not paying higher than you should be.

Orderly lets you know if the prices in your region are staying constant, or if they’re fluctuating.

Take Granny Smith Apples, for instance. These crisp fruits will be a staple in your kitchen in a month or so.

Orderly - Apple Supplier Food Cost ExampleOrderly - Apple Supplier Food Cost Example 2

In the Southeast, the ingredient price trends have stayed relatively the same, and fairly low. So, why have you seen your prices go up?

Bet your supplier is banking on you not paying attention.

However, out West, prices have jumped up and down. It could be for a variety of reasons, but if you’re blindly ordering apples anyways, your prices may stay high even when the local average has sunk back down.

Ensuring your prices are consistent with trends can be a key factor that saves you thousands.

And on your own, it can be extremely difficult to find these numbers. It takes a lot of time, attention to detail, and nuance.

But with Orderly on the lookout for you, you can always be prepared.

Like with cinnamon. Just because prices spiked in the Northeast doesn’t mean your Dallas-based restaurant should be paying those same high prices.

Orderly - Cinnamon Supplier Food Cost Example

And if you are in fact a Northeastern restaurant, you can ask your suppliers why your prices are so much higher than the national average. And maybe negotiate a better deal.

What Does This All Mean?

One important note: Over time, prices are inevitably going to change. And likely go up.

So yeah. It may feel a little early to plan out your first big Russet Potato order for the fall.

But if you’re starting to keep an eye on the ingredient price trends, or employing software to do it, you won’t get screwed over once fall is in the air. Or in any other seasons.

With these charts in hand, you’ll know when you can rest easy. If your prices are in the big gray median, things are great.

But if you’re way above the line, it’s time to have a chat with your restaurant supplier rep.

They’re counting on you being lost. They like having power. But when you’re paying attention, the power is finally in your hands.

So, you may ask, if it’s so easy to keep your prices low, why are restaurants paying so much?

Well, most owners aren’t paying attention.

Don’t be in that majority.

all your profitability. one easy app. Orderly

Have a Profitable Fall

With Orderly, you don’t have to watch ingredient price trends.

Instead, we’ll send you recommendations whenever we see you’re overpaying for an ingredient.

Our Customer Success Managers are always on the lookout for ways to help you save.

And there’s no brute force needed on your part. No counting, no long nights, no stress.

Just a smooth, data-driven approach that’s proven to help you save.

With numbers this easy – and this accurate – we only have one more question for you:

What’re you waiting for?

Danny Barry

Danny Barry

As Orderly's Content Marketing Manager, Danny is always in the weeds of the restaurant business. He's having conversations. He's scouring the internet for research. He's writing until his fingers start to hurt. And it's all to help you run a smarter restaurant. When he's not writing about restaurants, Danny can be found eating at restaurants. Or, you may find him cheering on his beloved Miami Hurricanes.

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